As I write this, there is an air of change out there again in this primary election, some of based in political circumstances, some of it of the throw-the-bums-out variety.
In this post, we’ll deal with the political.
Almost no one last summer thought U.S. Rep. Tim Holden was in danger when it became clear that the Republican-majority 17th Congresssional District was about to turn majority Democratic, but here we are. Attorney Matt Cartwright has run a deft race, taking advantage of a vastly different 17th and the more experienced opponent’s mistakes. Mr. Cartwright effectively parried Mr. Holden’s attack ads and kept in mind he was running in a 17th that has 75 to 86 percent new turf, depending on whom you ask.
A close friend of mine in politics thought Mr. Holden’s kids-for-cash scandal TV commercial against Cartwright would work, and he’s an old hand at politics, but if Mr. Holden loses, that ad will be viewed as the beginning of Mr. Holden’s end.
Another friend, Republican consultant Chris Nicholas, who ran Arlen Specter’s last two Senate campaigns, thinks Mr. Cartwright against Republican Laureen Cummings of Old Forge could make for an intriguing matchup and I quite agree, assuming Ms. Cummings is able to raise a substantial amount of money.
Mr. Cartwright has already promised to take on the Tea Party as bad for the country and Ms. Cummings is one of Tea Partiest. She has proven she has lungs and Mr. Cartwright is a lawyer who can talk, too.
It’s almost like our one-time dream matchup of Democratic Lackawanna County Recorder of Deeds Evie Rafalko McNulty against then-County Commissioner Robert C. Cordaro, except this time the Republican is a woman and the Democrat is a man and neither has Mr. Cordaro’s baggage. That matchup, of course, never happened, but boy would the battle of those two mouths have been fun.
The 17th seat could become a tempting takeover target for Republicans if the Democrats looking to oust incumbent congressmen Tom Marino and Lou Barletta prove unable to mount serious challenges.
In the 11th Congressional District, which Mr. Barletta represents, Democrats are choosing today between Wilkes-Barre attorney Bill Vinsko, who doesn’t live in the 11th, and Middle Paxton Twp. activist and consultant Gene Stilp, who again proved once in a while in this campaign that he has few peers at getting free coverage. He just didn’t have a lot of money. Mr. Vinsko showed he at least he can pick the low-hanging fruit when it comes to raising money, but Mr. Barletta will have lots of money. Lots of money.
In the 10th Congressional District, which Mr. Marino represents, the Democrat is Phil Scollo, a former Wall Street executive, who has yet to show he can match Mr. Marino’s money.
If neither the 10th or 11th Democrats can mount effective campaigns, the Republicans might take a shot at picking off the 17th if Mr. Cartwright wins tonight. If Mr. Holden wins, they probably won’t bother.
– BORYS KRAWCZENIUK